The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its forecast for global oil demand growth on Monday, citing the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs and their potential to hinder the world economy. The revised outlook suggests a slight reduction in demand growth, with OPEC now predicting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd.
According to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for April, this adjustment marks a reduction of 150,000 bpd from the group’s previous predictions just a month ago. The lowered forecast reflects a broader concern about economic instability driven by international trade tensions.
OPEC’s oil basket, which comprises twelve crudes, saw a price drop to $66.25 per barrel on Monday, down from $70.85 the previous week, based on OPEC Secretariat calculations. This decline is largely attributed to the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and a plan by OPEC+—a coalition of OPEC members and allies such as Russia—to increase oil production, both of which have exerted downward pressure on global oil prices.
Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs on Nigerian exports and other nations has sparked fears of a full-scale trade war, which has already led to rising consumer prices, a slowdown in manufacturing, and reduced international trade flows. Though the tariff plan has been suspended for 90 days, the consequences of the trade dispute continue to weigh on global markets.
In response to these developments, OPEC also revised its world economic growth forecast for 2025, lowering it to 3.0 percent from a previous estimate of 3.1 percent. Additionally, OPEC adjusted its 2026 forecast down to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent. This change reflects heightened uncertainty around global growth prospects, as trade issues introduce new risks to the economic outlook.
OPEC’s report highlighted that while the global economy showed steady growth at the beginning of the year, recent trade-related developments have added significant uncertainty. “The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the report stated.
Despite the downward revision, oil prices saw some stability after the report was released, with Brent crude trading near $66 per barrel following the U.S. decision to exclude some tariffs. However, oil prices have still fallen by more than 10 percent this month.
While OPEC’s demand growth forecast remains one of the more optimistic in the industry, it continues to expect global oil consumption to rise for years. In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil demand may peak within this decade as the world increasingly shifts towards cleaner energy alternatives. The IEA is set to update its oil demand outlook on Tuesday.
The report also provided insights into OPEC+ production levels, revealing a drop in crude production by 37,000 bpd in March, bringing the total output to 41.02 million bpd. This reduction was partly driven by cuts from Nigeria and Iraq, in line with OPEC+’s ongoing efforts to manage the market. The group is expected to raise production in April and May as part of its plan to unwind the most recent production cuts.
However, the report also noted that Kazakhstan, which has frequently exceeded its OPEC+ production targets, increased its output by 37,000 bpd in March, breaching its quota once again. Kazakhstan’s oil production reached 1.852 million bpd, surpassing its OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million bpd for the January-March period. The country’s energy ministry confirmed that it would compensate for the overproduction in April.
An industry source reported that Kazakhstan’s oil output fell in the first two weeks of April but remained above its OPEC+ quota. This adjustment follows a meeting on April 3, 2025, where eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, discussed global market conditions and agreed to a production adjustment of 411,000 bpd for May 2025. This will be implemented as three monthly increments.
The eight countries are expected to meet again on May 5 to decide on June’s production levels, with the possibility of pausing or reversing the planned increases depending on the evolving market conditions.
As OPEC continues to navigate a volatile global economic landscape, the energy sector remains in a delicate balancing act, responding to fluctuating prices, political tensions, and shifting demand forecasts.