Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria has begun limiting gas supplies in anticipation of the expiration of a key transit agreement between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz. The move follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s announcement that Ukraine will not extend the deal.
The gas supply reductions in Transnistria started on Sunday, with the cuts initially targeting state institutions along the Moldova border. The gas supplied to both Moldova and Transnistria is transported through Ukraine, making any disruption to the Ukraine-Russia deal potentially devastating to the region’s energy security.
Moldovan authorities have accused Russia of using energy resources as a geopolitical tool, a claim fueled by President Zelensky’s repeated statements that Ukraine is opposed to extending its gas transit agreement with Gazprom. The termination of the transit deal is now set to disrupt a key energy route that has long linked Russia with Moldova and its breakaway region.
In addition to the pending expiration of the Ukraine-Gazprom deal, Moldova faces another issue: unpaid gas deliveries. Gazprom has cited this outstanding debt as the reason for its plan to halt gas supplies to Moldova starting January 1. However, former Moldovan Energy Minister, Andrei Spinu, has insisted that Moldova does not owe Gazprom any money, noting that since 2022, Russia has only been exporting gas to Transnistria, not to Moldova directly.
Currently, Russia exports approximately 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Transnistria, where the gas is used primarily to generate electricity, which is then exported to Moldova. This arrangement was agreed upon after Moldova and Transnistria struck an agreement in 2022 that all gas supplied by Gazprom to Moldova would instead be routed to Transnistria.
As Ukraine’s refusal to renew its gas transit agreement with Gazprom threatens Moldova’s energy stability, Moldovan officials have engaged in discussions with Gazprom about potential alternative supply routes. However, Gazprom has stipulated that it will only consider such options once Moldova resolves its outstanding debt, estimated at $700 million.
The latest developments are likely to further strain Moldova’s efforts to distance itself from Russian influence in Transnistria, a narrow strip of land that remains internationally unrecognized but is supported by Moscow. As tensions rise, Moldova’s government faces an increasingly complex energy and diplomatic situation that could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s geopolitical landscape.