The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has upheld its projections for renewable diesel and other biofuels in its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on February 11. The forecast includes expectations for both production and consumption of renewable diesel, as well as emerging biofuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
The EIA expects renewable diesel production to average 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 250,000 bpd in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts. Production was recorded at 210,000 bpd in 2024. Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to remain steady at 20,000 bpd for both 2025 and 2026, down from 30,000 bpd in 2024.
Consumption of renewable diesel is forecast to increase to 250,000 bpd in 2025 and 270,000 bpd in 2026, continuing the trend from the January STEO. This follows a consumption rate of 240,000 bpd in 2024.
In addition to renewable diesel, the EIA is maintaining its projections for other biofuels. These include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (such as SAF and biojet fuel), renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels currently in various stages of commercialization. Production of these other biofuels is forecast to average 40,000 bpd in 2025, rising to 50,000 bpd in 2026, up from 20,000 bpd in 2024.
Net imports of other biofuels are expected to remain at zero for both 2025 and 2026, in line with 2024 figures. Similarly, the EIA anticipates that the consumption of these biofuels will average 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 50,000 bpd in 2026, compared to 20,000 bpd in 2024.
The EIA’s steady projections reflect a stable outlook for the growth of renewable fuels in the coming years.