Recent U.S. tariff threats have prompted Canadian policymakers to reconsider the long-abandoned Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects, which could have diversified Canada’s oil and gas exports beyond its reliance on the U.S.
Canada is heavily reliant on energy exports, with oil accounting for a substantial portion of its trade relationship with the U.S. The country supplies around 60% of all U.S. oil imports, with Alberta alone providing 56%—more than twice the combined contributions of Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. As a result, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith emphasized the province’s crucial role in the U.S. energy supply.
However, Canada’s dependence on the U.S. for oil exports has reignited discussions about reviving previously scrapped pipeline projects, which could allow Canada to access new international markets. Over the last decade, only the Trans Mountain Expansion Project has succeeded in navigating widespread opposition. Originally abandoned by Kinder Morgan and later acquired by the federal government, the project tripled the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day, transporting crude from Alberta to British Columbia.
Other proposed projects, such as Energy East and Northern Gateway, remain in the realm of discussion. Energy East was designed to transport oil from Alberta to the east coast, while Northern Gateway would have connected Alberta to Kitimat, British Columbia’s northern coast. Both projects were abandoned between 2016 and 2017 amid environmental concerns and strong opposition from provinces outside Alberta.
With tariffs and trade tensions escalating between Canada and the U.S., politicians and industry leaders are reconsidering the viability of these pipeline projects. Earlier this month, Canada’s Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne indicated the country might need an Alberta-to-East Coast pipeline, acknowledging that changing geopolitical dynamics have altered the landscape for Canada’s energy strategy.
Public support for these projects is increasing. A recent Angus Reid Institute poll revealed that support for reviving Energy East has risen to 65%, up from 58% in 2019, with Quebec’s backing growing from 33% to 47%. Northern Gateway, too, garners significant support, particularly in British Columbia, where 55% of respondents back the project.
Amid these developments, Canada’s Natural Resources Minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, suggested that the U.S. tariff threat has exposed vulnerabilities in Canada’s energy infrastructure that warrant reflection. While the federal government appears open to considering new pipeline projects, industry leaders like Enbridge, which saw the cancellation of Northern Gateway in the 2010s, remain cautious. Enbridge’s CEO, Greg Ebel, stated that any serious reinvestment in pipeline projects would require significant changes to the regulatory environment, with specific policies that prioritize major infrastructure projects as being in the national interest.
Despite the increasing political will and public support for pipeline expansion, Enbridge and other companies emphasize that real legislative changes, alongside support at both the federal and provincial levels, will be crucial for the revival of these energy infrastructure projects.