Last week, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced the formation of the National Energy Dominance Council, a new initiative designed to strengthen America’s energy security and reduce its reliance on foreign sources. In a White House statement, the Trump administration criticized the Biden-Harris administration for significantly slowing the growth of U.S. energy production. Key policies such as a federal oil leasing moratorium and the removal of millions of acres from available energy development have, according to Trump’s team, led to a shortfall of over two billion barrels of oil. Had the previous energy policies remained in place, the U.S. could have avoided this shortfall, potentially easing the financial burden on American families due to rising energy prices.
One of the central issues raised by Trump’s administration was the need to reduce U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals. This follows China’s recent actions to restrict the export of key resources like germanium, gallium, and antimony, raising alarms over national security implications. Trump’s directives, aimed at counteracting this reliance, included a push for the Secretary of the Interior to direct the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to update its list of critical minerals, possibly including uranium. Such a designation would enable faster permitting and federal funding for domestic uranium production, offering a boost to the sector.
A key focus of the Trump administration’s energy policy is liquefied natural gas (LNG). One of Trump’s first executive actions was to fast-track the LNG export licensing process, cutting the time required for approval by 83%. Additionally, he reduced permitting timelines for drilling on federal lands, resulting in a surge of new permit applications. Trump’s energy strategy also included reforms to the New Source Review, a regulation that previously penalized companies for upgrading coal-fired power plants, and opened up millions of acres for domestic energy exploration. Trump’s administration had previously warned European nations in 2017 to diversify their energy imports by turning to U.S. natural gas, rather than relying on Russian supplies.
While Trump has repeatedly pledged to increase domestic oil production, some critics question how achievable this goal is. U.S. oil is produced primarily by independent companies, rather than a national oil company, making it unclear how the administration plans to boost output. Experts suggest that the U.S. natural gas and LNG sectors will likely play a larger role in meeting Trump’s ambitious energy objectives.
Commodity analysts from Standard Chartered have pointed out that the administration’s goal of increasing energy production by three million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) by 2028 is achievable. They note that since 2015, U.S. oil and gas production has consistently grown by an average of 123,000 barrels per day. However, they also caution that natural gas is expected to drive much of this growth, as crude oil production faces increasing challenges.
In line with these predictions, Morgan Stanley has forecasted that U.S. natural gas will experience a significant surge in demand, driven by growing LNG exports and rising electricity needs. The ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution, which includes advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and clean energy manufacturing, is expected to push electricity demand in the U.S. up by 15% over the next decade. This forecast is supported by a recent report from Grid Strategies, which revealed that utilities and transmission operators have substantially increased their electricity demand projections, anticipating a major growth in power consumption.
As the Trump administration sets its sights on making the U.S. a dominant force in global energy markets, the push for increased energy independence and reliance on domestic resources, particularly natural gas, is likely to be a central element of its policy agenda moving forward.