OPEC+ is still undecided on its oil production strategy for the second quarter of 2025, with sources inside the group revealing a growing sense of uncertainty due to a combination of political tensions and market forces.
The organization typically finalizes its plans to adjust oil production quotas a month in advance, with an April 2025 decision to either maintain current output levels or increase production now in the balance. This decision carries significant weight, as any changes could send ripples through global oil markets. However, there is no consensus among OPEC+ members, with key players diverging on how to proceed.
At the heart of the debate are Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia, known for its cautious approach to production, even at its own expense, is reportedly leaning toward maintaining steady output. In contrast, the UAE is eager to ramp up production, seeking to maximize its unused capacity. The tension between these two countries, whose differing stances have occasionally sparked speculation about the stability of OPEC+, could create further divisions within the group. Rumors of the UAE potentially leaving the organization if it is not allowed to increase production have surfaced in the past.
Adding complexity to the situation are external political pressures, notably from former U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has been outspoken in his calls for OPEC to increase production in an effort to lower global oil prices and potentially influence geopolitical conflicts, including the war between Russia and Ukraine. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Trump stated, “You gotta bring down the oil price… that will end that war.”
Despite Trump’s public push, OPEC has been largely resistant to such external pressures, and it remains unclear whether his recent policies—including global tariffs, sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, and his preference for fossil fuels over renewables—will influence the group’s decision-making. As OPEC+ grapples with managing supply in line with fluctuating demand, these political factors only serve to complicate the process further.