Mexico’s finance ministry has revised its 2025 crude oil production target, now forecasting a daily output of 1.762 million barrels per day (bpd)—a reduction of 129,000 bpd from the initial projection. This revised forecast falls short of the original target set by President Claudia Sheinbaum of 1.8 million bpd.
Despite the downward revision for this year, the finance ministry anticipates a slight increase in production for the following year. In 2026, output is expected to rise to 1.775 million bpd, bolstered by the development of strategic new projects and the potential incorporation of additional fields, contingent upon favorable exploration results.
For years, Mexico has faced a continual decline in its crude oil production, with state-owned Pemex, along with its partners, averaging 1.62 million bpd during the first two months of 2025—well below the president’s initial target. The company’s struggles were further compounded by a reduction in its budget late last year, which could hinder future production efforts. Under the guidance of Pemex’s new upstream head, Nestor Martinez, the company has shifted focus from extensive well repairs and seismic data contracts to exploring and developing new deposits, particularly in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Alongside production issues, Pemex recently faced quality concerns regarding the crude oil it does produce. Gulf Coast refiners reported unusually high water content—up to 6%—in some shipments of Mexican crude, six times the acceptable limit. Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez acknowledged the issue, attributing it to historic occurrences in oil production. However, he assured that the matter had since been addressed, according to official reports.