The European Commission confirmed Monday that it will unveil a long-awaited strategy to phase out Russian oil and gas imports on May 6, after multiple delays. The plan, originally scheduled for release last month, is part of the EU’s commitment to eliminate its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The delays in publication have been partly attributed to uncertainty surrounding former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, with EU officials citing potential implications for transatlantic energy trade. According to sources familiar with the matter, these concerns have influenced ongoing EU-U.S. trade discussions.
Despite a significant drop in Russian pipeline gas deliveries since the invasion, the EU’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose last year. As of 2024, Russia still accounts for 19% of the EU’s combined gas and LNG supply. Notably, while the EU has sanctioned Russian oil, it has yet to impose restrictions on gas imports.
Hungary has consistently opposed sanctions on Russian energy, using its veto power to block EU consensus, which requires unanimous approval. Other member states have also voiced hesitations, citing the absence of viable alternatives to Russian LNG.
The Commission has not detailed the specific measures it will propose to speed up the energy transition. However, policy experts at the Bruegel think tank have suggested that tariffs on Russian gas imports could be a strategic tool.
A complete shift away from Russian energy would require the EU to deepen ties with other suppliers, including the United States. The EU has signaled interest in increasing LNG imports from the U.S., which played a crucial role in alleviating the 2022 energy crisis. That year, the U.S. became Europe’s third-largest gas supplier, following Norway and Russia.
Still, some European diplomats and industry leaders are voicing concern that a growing reliance on U.S. energy could pose its own risks. Trump has hinted that American LNG could be used as leverage in future trade negotiations, raising fears that the EU’s energy security may once again become entangled in geopolitical bargaining.
The May 6 roadmap is expected to offer greater clarity on the EU’s long-term strategy to replace Russian fossil fuels while balancing energy security, political unity, and international trade dynamics.