OPEC+ is raising concerns about a possible increase in U.S. oil production if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, warning that such a shift could undermine the group’s efforts to stabilize global oil prices, according to delegates.
The group, which controls around half of the world’s oil supply, is already grappling with rising production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ countries. Earlier this month, OPEC+ decided to delay plans to increase output until April 2025 and extended its production cuts through 2026 in response to weak demand and surging production from U.S. shale oil fields.
The United States, now the world’s top oil producer, pumps about one-fifth of global supply, a shift that has continued to challenge OPEC’s influence on the market. Delegates expressed concerns that a return of Trump, whose administration had been characterized by deregulation of the energy sector, could further exacerbate the situation.
“I think a return of Trump is good news for the oil industry, with possibly less stringent environmental policies,” said one delegate from an OPEC+ member country aligned with the U.S. “But we may see higher production in the United States, which is not good for us.”
While OPEC has not yet commented on the matter, the potential for increased U.S. output poses a significant challenge to the group’s planned output increases, scheduled for April 2025. A surge in U.S. oil production could push prices lower, which would hurt OPEC+ members who rely heavily on oil revenues.
Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, noted, “This is a potentially difficult dynamic for both sides. OPEC+ has faced a big challenge from rising U.S. production, which has reduced the group’s influence.”
OPEC+ has already been holding back 5.85 million barrels per day of production capacity after a series of cuts since 2022. U.S. oil output has increased by 11% from 2022 to 2024, reaching 21.6 million barrels per day, according to OPEC’s figures. This is up from approximately 10 million barrels per day just over a decade ago.
The group’s share of global oil production has also dwindled, now comprising 48% of world supply, the lowest level since OPEC+ was formed in 2016. In that year, the group controlled over 55% of the global market, Reuters calculations show.
Igor Sechin, head of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft, recently pointed out that OPEC+ production cuts in 2016 and 2020 had helped boost the U.S. shale industry, positioning the U.S. as a leading exporter.
Another OPEC+ source added that while Trump’s policies could stimulate oil demand, which would benefit the group, the prospect of increasing U.S. production remains a significant concern. “The main threat to OPEC+ is increasing U.S. oil production under Trump, reducing the country’s dependence on imported oil and increasing exports,” the source said.
In its latest report, OPEC forecast a 2.3% increase in total U.S. oil supply next year and lowered its global oil demand growth projections.
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