Oil prices are forecasted to remain near $70 per barrel throughout 2025, as weak demand from China and increasing global supplies are expected to undermine OPEC+-led efforts to stabilize the market.
The poll, which surveyed 31 economists and analysts, predicts that the global benchmark Brent crude will average $74.33 per barrel in 2025, down slightly from last month’s forecast of $74.53. This marks the eighth consecutive downward revision of the forecast.
Brent crude has averaged approximately $80 per barrel this year, with prices on track for a 3% annual decline due to weak demand, particularly from China, the world’s largest oil importer.
U.S. crude is projected to average $70.86 per barrel in 2025, a modest increase from the previous month’s estimate of $70.69.
According to Sehul Bhatt, director of research at CRISIL, rising production from non-OPEC countries is expected to maintain a well-supplied market. While an economic recovery in China is anticipated, the global shift toward electric vehicles is expected to limit the potential for significant demand growth.
Most respondents in the poll expect the oil market to experience a surplus next year, with analysts at JPMorgan forecasting supply will outpace demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
OPEC+, which controls approximately half of the world’s oil production, delayed the start of its planned output increases by three months until April 2025. The organization also extended its full unwinding of production cuts until the end of 2026. Florian Grunberger, senior analyst at Kpler, explained that the decision was driven by expectations that supply growth from non-OPEC countries will outstrip demand growth in 2025. Grunberger also noted that OPEC+ may further delay the full unwinding of cuts until the fourth quarter of 2025.
Global oil demand is expected to grow by between 0.4 million and 1.3 million bpd in 2025, according to the poll, which is lower than OPEC’s own estimate of 1.45 million bpd.
Markets are also anticipating significant policy changes as former President Donald Trump is expected to return to the White House in January 2025. These shifts may include adjustments to tariffs, deregulation, and tax policies.
Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC, stated that U.S. political changes generally have less impact on oil prices and the domestic oil and gas sector than is often assumed. However, some analysts believe that intensified sanctions on Iranian oil exports under a Trump administration could provide short-term support for oil prices.