The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has set a target of 367.5 million barrels of crude oil for production by oil companies in the first half of 2025, marking a significant step towards increasing the nation’s oil output.
This production goal aligns with Nigeria’s broader objective of achieving a daily oil output of 2.06 million barrels, including condensates, by 2025. The NUPRC has also outlined the crude oil requirements for local refineries, which are expected to need 770,500 barrels per day (bpd) for smooth operations during the first six months of 2025. This demand represents approximately 37 percent of the projected national daily output of 2,066,940 bpd.
The NUPRC’s plans are aimed at bolstering Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and ensuring a steady supply of crude oil to meet local demand, in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act’s (PIA) provisions for sustainable energy management.
However, the NUPRC has acknowledged that, despite a recent uptick in production, the industry continues to face challenges such as oil theft and insufficient investment, which pose significant barriers to reaching the ambitious targets.
The forecast was detailed in a report titled “Crude Oil Production Forecast of Producing Oil Companies and the Refining Requirement of Functional Refineries in Nigeria for the First Half of 2025,” released by the Commission on Wednesday. The document, signed by NUPRC Chief Executive Officer Gbenga Komolafe, emphasizes that the targets are in line with Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act, which promotes effective utilization of the country’s domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent supply of crude oil.
In his comments, Komolafe stated that the projected daily crude oil requirement for local refineries—770,500 barrels per day—is a crucial factor for understanding Nigeria’s energy landscape in the first half of 2025.
To meet these demands, NUPRC aims to push oil production to over 2 million barrels per day. The production target is linked to the recently launched Project 1 Million Barrels, introduced in October 2024, which is expected to positively impact national production levels.
“By leveraging the capacities of upstream operators, we aim to meet a target daily production of 2.5 million barrels per day in the short term,” Komolafe explained. “This initiative is in direct alignment with Nigeria’s commitment to enhancing its refining capacity and fostering a self-sustaining petroleum industry.”
The NUPRC report also provided detailed information on the crude oil needs of nine active refineries for the first half of 2025. Refineries such as the Port Harcourt Refinery, Dangote Refinery, Warri Refinery, and others will collectively require 123,480,500 barrels of crude oil from January to June 2025.
Key Crude Oil Requirements for Refineries
Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals: The refinery requires 99,550,000 barrels for the period, with a daily need of 550,000 barrels and a monthly requirement of 17.05 million barrels.
Warri Refinery: The second-highest requirement is 13,587,500 barrels, with daily and monthly needs of 75,000 barrels and 2.325 million barrels, respectively.
Kaduna Refinery: This facility needs 3,960,000 barrels, with a daily requirement of 66,000 barrels and a monthly need of 1.98 million barrels.
Port Harcourt Refinery (Old): Daily demand stands at 60,000 barrels, with a monthly requirement of 1.86 million barrels and a half-year total of 2.87 million barrels.
Other refineries such as Aradel Refinery, OPAC Refineries, Waltersmith Refinery, and Dupot Midstream Company also have specific requirements for crude oil, ranging from 360,000 to 1.27 million barrels over the first half of 2025.
The NUPRC’s forecast is not only vital for ensuring consistent crude supply to local refineries, but it also sets the stage for increased collaboration between refining companies and oil producers. According to the Commission, the first half of 2025 will witness a more robust and self-reliant petroleum industry in Nigeria, with an emphasis on greater synergy between local refineries and producing firms.
“This strategic initiative is part of Nigeria’s broader vision to bolster its refining capacity and secure the sustainability of its oil industry,” Komolafe concluded. “With continued efforts in boosting production, Nigeria is poised for a stronger energy future in 2025 and beyond.”
The NUPRC remains focused on ensuring that the nation’s crude oil is used efficiently to fuel domestic refineries, with hopes that Project 1 Million Barrels will further help to achieve this goal.